Monday, May 04, 2009

Krugman cites Anecdotes

Paul Krugman's NYTimes column today includes the following throwaway paragaraph:
First things first: anecdotes about falling wages are proliferating, but how broad is the phenomenon? The answer is, very.

My question for today: can anecdotes proliferate? Is it the anecdote that is proliferating? How do they do it (I'm assuming not parthenogenesis)? I will ponder.

Sunday, May 03, 2009

Information--not stories-- in lending

The question of anecdotes (and thus anecdotal value) is discussed regularly but not systemically among the various excellent economic bloggers; there is little distinction made, however, between particular or local knowledge used for a particular and local scenario and a particular piece of emblematic knowledge or information that would function as an anecdote -- by which I mean would function as information pertinent to all other similar scenarios.

Naked Capitalism for example discusses today how lending that assumes a kind of homogeneity of information is less robust than lending that focuses on particular but not emblematic information.

Skill loss in Banking

The problem is that there isn't a good substitute for knowledge of the borrower and his community. Does he understand what he is getting into? How stable is his employer? What are the prospects for the local economy? Those are important considerations, and they require judgment. That may still in the end be used as an input to a more structured decision process. but overly automating borrower assessment has resulted in information loss. It's hardly a surprise that the quality of decisions deteriorated.

This is an excellent discussion and I have yet to articular the difference between these particular information inputs and "anecdotal" information as defined in this blog.