Monday, July 14, 2014

The Grumpy Economist on the power of words

This helpful lament by the Grumpy Economist articulates the problem of valuing words, phrases, and anecdotes.
Math vs. literature is a similar theme to atheoretical regressions/models as parables vs. estimates and tests. In my 30 years as an economist, our field has become much more literary and less quantitative. In part that reflects a different emphasis. It's really hard to build towards maximum likelyhood tests of effects of religion on the adoption of new ideas. Paul Romer commented on this at length, with "models vs. words" on his slides. In his view, math is a useful language because it removes much of the value-laden elements of language and forces logic to be out in the open. He linked language to us vs. them, social norms, morality, and those pesky cortisol levels. (I'm doing my best to recall a speech, so forgive me Paul if I don't get it all right.) He pointed to my use of "paleo-Keynesian" to describe the static models from the 1960s, guessing nobody would remember anything else from my discussion. When I complained that Paul Krugman invented the term, he pointed out (correctly) that such borrowing just made its use more rhetorically effective. There go the cortisol levels
Anecdotes, like nicknames ("paleo-Keynesian") stick and change the debate.  How do we measure the effect of an anecdote, the value to change what is said afterward?  Cochrane continues: "The use of ancient quotations came up several times. I  complained a bit about Eggertsson and Mehrotra's long efforts to tie their work to quotes from verbal speculations of Keynes, Alvin Hansen, Paul Krugman and Larry Summers. Their rhetorical device is, "aha, these equations finally explain what some sage of 80 years ago or Important Person today really meant." 

Perhaps the formula below can put a value on the "ancient quotations" (which might be seen as a form of anecdote.)

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